Here’s a sobering calculation: The odds that Americans turning 65 today will eventually need assistance with bathing, dressing and other personal activities are about 50/50. And those who’ll need long-term care can expect to incur costs of $138,000, on average, estimate Melissa Favreault of the Urban Institute and Judith Dey of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. Yet people age 55 to 64 with retirement savings accounts have a median balance of $104,000 in them, according to the National Institute on Retirement Security, a nonprofit based in Washington, D.C. See the problem? America’s Broken Long-Term Care System Sad to say, America’s system for financing long-term care is badly broken. If we take a few ideas from Japan, though, we could help avoid a long-term care catastrophe. Japan has the highest proportion of people 65+ in the world. And 20 years ago, its long-term care approach looked much like the current failed U.S. system. But Japan took a few key initiatives in 2000 that are widely admired among long-term care policy experts. Before I explain what they did, first let me offer a brief look at the U.S. situation. Long-Term Care Financing in the U.S. America’s private long-term care insurance market is contracting and its policies are expensive. Only about a dozen companies now sell coverage, compared with about 100 more than a decade ago, according to Marc Cohen, chief research and development officer at LifePlans, a firm that helps health- and long-term care insurers manage risk. Tom McInerney, chief executive officer at Genworth, the nation’s largest long-term care insurer, estimates that between half and two-thirds of Americans can’t afford to buy in the traditional long-term care insurance market. A 60-year-old married couple would pay $3,930 per year, on...